Textile and garment exports may reach 47 – 48 bn USD in the positive scenario for 2023 and 45 – 46 bn USD in the lower-case scenario said the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS). How enterprises adapt to changes in markets will affect their growth in any circumstance, it added.
In the positive scenario – instabilities in the global market will be brought under control, all activities of the sector may have recovered by the end of the first quarter. In such case, 48 bn USD in revenue is achievable.
However, VITAS President Vu Duc Giang said, in the second scenario under which the global market will recover in the latter half of 2023, export turnover may reach 45 bn USD.
In the current context, when international markets do not place long-term textile and garment orders, businesses can switch to producing lower-value items. In 2022, as they started to diversify markets and products, growth was still sustained. In any scenario, textile and garment markets will be unable to bounce back at least in the first half of 2023.
However, experts held that there are still certain bright spots next year, noting the COVID-19 pandemic is being put under control, the world getting used to a new normal, the Asia-Pacific predicted to be the fastest-growing region in 2023, China easing the zero-COVID policy, and logistics costs showing signs of declining.
Meanwhile, the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) said though forecasts had been made early, its members were still surprised at unpredictable changes in 2022 such as the Russia – Ukraine conflict and surges in oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, which caused demand to nose-dive in importing markets.
Yet Vinatex estimated its 2022 consolidated revenue at over 19.53 trillion VND (826.84 mn USD), up 15 percent from 2021 and 8 percent higher than the target, and consolidated profit at more than 1 trillion VND, up 14.6 percent from the target. These figures were assessed as encouraging amid numerous market difficulties.
Pointing out three scenarios, Vinatex President Le Tien Truong said in the best-case one – the global economy will have become stable and geopolitical conflicts been over by the end of the second quarter – exports this year may go up 4 – 5 percent from 2022.
In the middle-case scenario – instabilities will linger on, inflation remain, and interest rates still increase until Q3 – the exports may stay unchanged compared to 2022. And in the worst-case one where the world economy will enter a recession, the 2023 revenue may be about 5 percent lower annually.
