Cotton Association of India (CAI) has retained its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each, i.e. at the same level as in the previous estimate. However, it has reduced the cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone by 2.50 lakh bales from its previous month’s estimate i.e. 63.00 lakh bales from 65.50 lakh bales estimated earlier.
CAI has lowered the cotton crop estimate for the Central Zone by 1.00 lakh bales to 195.00 lakh bales as against 196 lakh bales estimated during last month. For Gujarat, the highest cotton producing state in India, CAI has reduced crop estimate for the season beginning October 1, 2019, by 4.00 lakh bales, on account of damage reported to the crop due to heavy rains and pink bollworm infestation. “This has resulted in uprooting of cotton plants by about 10 per cent farmers in Gujarat who wish to migrate to other competing crops,” CAI said.
On the other hand, CAI has increased its crop estimate for Maharashtra by 3.00 lakh bales, as migration of cotton crop from Maharashtra to other neighbouring States is not likely to happen this year due to the participation of Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) in the market.
Also, there is an increase of 3.00 lakh bales in the crop estimated for Telangana State and an increase of 50,000 bales in the crop estimated for Karnataka now compared to that estimated during last month, CAI said in its report.
The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October 2019 and November 2019 is 84.65 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the arrivals of 56.15 lakh bales upto November 30, 2019, imports of 5.00 lakh bales upto November 30, 2019 and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 23.50 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 and November 2019 at 50 lakh bales of 170 kg each, while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto November 30, 2019 is 5.00 lakh bales. Stock at the end of November 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 29.65 lakh bales, including 14.65 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 15.00 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.).
The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto September30, 2020 at 403 lakh bales, consisting of the opening stock of 23.50 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season and imports estimated by the CAI at 25.00 lakh bales, which are lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate at 32.00 lakh bales.
Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year 2019-20 is 331 lakh bales. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 42 lakh bales, same as compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 30 lakh bales.
